Fed Lowers Rate by a Quarter Point to 4.25 Percent

Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point to 4.25 percent to prevent the housing slump and credit squeeze from undoing the six-year expansion.

The change ``should help promote moderate growth over time,'' the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement after meeting today in Washington. ``Recent developments, including the deterioration in financial market conditions, have increased the uncertainty surrounding the outlook for economic growth and inflation.''

The economy is faltering after a third-quarter surge as house prices drop, consumer spending slows and banks tighten lending standards for even their best customers. Stocks fell and Treasury notes rallied after the decision by the Fed, which also said some inflation risks remained.

``Incoming information suggests that economic growth is slowing, reflecting the intensification of the housing correction and some softening in business and consumer spending,'' the FOMC said. ``The committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments in economic prospects and will act as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth.''

The Fed's Board of Governors also voted to cut the discount rate, the cost of direct loans from the central bank, by a quarter point to 4.75 percent. The gap with the federal funds rate remains half a point. Some economists had predicted the Fed would reduce the spread between the two.

Rosengren Dissents

Today's decision, which matches the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, wasn't unanimous. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren voted in favor of a half point cut.

The benchmark rate is now at the lowest level since January 2006. Bernanke, 53, who succeeded Alan Greenspan as chairman the following month, continued a series of increases that lifted the federal funds rate to 5.25 percent by June last year.

Policy makers held their ground until August this year, when the collapse in assets backed by subprime mortgages roiled markets around the world and forced central banks to pump billions of dollars into the banking system. It also spurred the Fed to start cutting the federal funds rate in September. The Fed was joined last week by the Bank of Canada and Bank of England.

Investors became confident of further reductions after Bernanke and Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said in separate speeches last month that ``turbulent'' markets could alter their outlook for growth. Fed officials estimated in October the economy would grow 1.8 percent to 2.5 percent in 2008. Rosengren said Dec. 3 that the expansion will be ``well below'' its long-term pace for the next two quarters.

Feldstein Pessimistic

``Whether it be consumer confidence, or real incomes, or business plans, we're seeing an economy that is continually slipping and therefore an increasing probability of a recession next year,'' Harvard University economist Martin Feldstein said in an interview last week. ``The Fed has to be prepared to continue cutting rates as we go into 2008.''

Since Fed officials made their forecasts, government reports show orders for U.S.-made durable goods fell in October, capacity-use rates in the nation's factories slipped and retail sales slowed. Payrolls increased by 94,000 jobs last month, after a 170,000 increase in October.

The economy will expand at an annual pace of 1 percent in the fourth quarter, down from 4.9 percent in the previous three months, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 63 economists.

The number of Americans who fell behind on their mortgage payments rose to a seasonally adjusted 5.6 percent in the third quarter, the highest in two decades, the Mortgage Bankers Association said last week. New foreclosures hit a record.

House Prices

As creditors took possession of properties, the supply of unsold homes grew to a 10.8-month supply in October. Prices of previously owned homes fell 5.1 percent from a year ago, the most on record, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The Fed ``has worries of many dimensions,'' Mickey Levy, chief economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York, said in an interview. ``While easing helps the economy in the short run, it won't kick in until the second half of next year.''

The credit deterioration has spread to Wall Street and commercial banks around the world that hold bonds and derivative contracts created from pools of home loans. Banks including Credit Suisse Group in Zurich and London-based Barclays Plc are among lenders that have marked down more than $50 billion on losses linked to U.S. home loans.

Lending Restrictions

Because banks are protecting capital, lending has been cut and concerns about counter-party risk are higher. About 40 percent of lenders have increased their standards for the most creditworthy borrowers to qualify for a so-called prime loan, according to a Fed study in October.

Interest rates for jumbo 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are about 6.68 percent, a spread of 92 basis points over non-jumbo loans of $417,000 or less. A year earlier, the spread was 36 basis points, and last month it was 57. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

Throughout the rate cutting-cycle, Fed officials have highlighted longer-term inflation risks in their statements and their public remarks. Oil prices hit a record $99.29 a barrel in New York on Nov. 21, and traded at $89.21 this morning.

The Fed's preferred gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy, rose 1.9 percent in October from a year ago. The index has remained below 2 percent since June.